Chaos Pending
What will the race for playoff spots end up looking like in the SEC?
In College Football and College Basketball, the race for a couple of bids to play in the national championship tournament annually becomes a weekly discussion. Its presence brings controversy and constant analysis of play-in scenarios throughout the final weeks of the season. However, College Football's selection committee is under much tighter scrutiny because more people pay attention to the numbers 3-10 best college football teams than a team at the bottom of a field of eight that resides in the lower 60 of the tournament. The casual fan also pays much closer attention because those bidding for the final College Football Playoff (CFP) spots have a legitimate chance of winning the title. In the first eight editions of the playoff, 3 of the 8 winners have been either the two or three seed. Ohio State won the initial playoff to take the 2014 title, Alabama won the 2017 title, and Georgia took the 2021 crown with a 33-18 win over Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide. 5 of the 8 title games have featured either a 3 or 4 seed. This gives legitimate stakes to the race for the final seed(s).
I will discuss the majority of major college football playoff scenarios. Here are some playoff scenarios that can possibly create unprecedented insanity in deciding who plays for College Football's Holy Grail.
Playoff Scenarios
- Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss
Georgia Bulldogs
10/15/2022 vs Vanderbilt
10/12/2022 vs Florida
11/5/2022 vs Tennessee
11/12/2022 @ Miss State
11/19/2022 @ Kentucky
11/26/2022 vs Georgia Tech
Alabama Crimson Tide
10/15/2022 @ Tennessee
10/22/2022 vs Miss State
11/5/2022 @ LSU
11/12/2022 @ Ole Miss
11/19/2022 vs Austin Peay
11/26/2022 vs Auburn
Tennessee Volunteers
10/15/2022 vs Alabama
10/22/2022 vs UT Martin
10/29/2022 vs Kentucky
11/5/2022 @ Georgia\
11/12/2022 vs Missouri
11/19/2022 @ South Carolina
11/26/2022 @ Vanderbilt
Ole Miss Rebels
10/15/2022 vs Auburn
10/22/2022 @ LSU
10/29/2022 @ Texas A&M
11/12/2022 vs Alabama
11/19/2022 @ Arkansas
These teams have trap games aside from the remaining games against each other. However, one must remember that the scenario would only reach its ultimate chaotic potential if the only games any of these teams lose are against one another. Today's Alabama/Tennessee game sets the table for everything else. Should Tennessee win, they still need to play Georgia on November 5th in Athens. The scenario I played out in my head is what inspired me to write this blog. If Tennessee wins today, loses to Georgia. Alabama wins the SEC Title game over Georgia, needing to justify leaving one of these teams out is the sad reality of having so many teams fighting for so few playoff berths. If Alabama wins today's matchup, chaos can still ensue involving Tennesee and Georgia if Tennessee wins the matchup against Georgia then loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship. This would put voters in a decision where the Vols would have two losses, but they gave Georgia their only loss and kept them out of the SEC title game.
The November showdown in Athens will be what will decide the direction of the Georgia Bulldogs' fate.
When it comes to Ole Miss, their goal is simple: Beat Alabama. If they do (barring losing any of their trap games), they will be in the CFP. The goal for both Georgia and the Rebels is the same: win your game against Tennessee and Alabama, respectively, and you are going to the dance. I was not planning initially to make predictions. However, the urge not to do so was victorious. Also, listed in this subsection are the scenarios, but the final results are provided below will include (if applicable) if a team lost any other remaining games as well.
Georgia Bulldogs - (12-1 Loss vs Alabama in SEC Championship game.)
The easiest thing to predict for the matchup on 11/5 between these two heavyweights is that regardless of the Vols/Tide result, both teams will still have their CFP hopes intact. While Georgia is top five opponent's points per game, only once have they played a passing offense that is top five in the nation, when they routed Oregon in week one. While Tennesse's running game is not great, their explosiveness potential should put them in a position where they have a lead and start to establish a running game that has been good but not great. I believe Tennessee ends Georgia's season in a shootout.
Tennessee Volunteers (12-1, Loss to Alabama. SEC Champions)
This is where it starts to get a bit crazy. Tennessee will lose today's game vs. Alabama. However, they ended up winning the SEC by way of beating Georgia, which allowed them to win the East. As mentioned, their offense can be extremely explosive, and they are well enough rounded that I believe they are legitimate contenders. The offense has racked up at least 500 total yards in 4 of their five games of the 2022 campaign. Tennessee also has the benefit of being able to outscore a team by using exclusively their offense or defense. In four of their first five, the Vols have run for at least 200 yards. These teams pale in comparison to playing the Dawgs in Athens. However, Tennessee matches up well with the Bulldogs, and when one thing isn't working, they can execute well in the other area.
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1. Loss to Ole Miss)
This would have seemed like a much bolder prediction than it admittedly is had Ole Miss not looked as dominant as they have. While Alabama once again looks like an NFL farm team, there will be two major concerns in their game against Ole Miss: 1) How will Bryce Young fare after his return? and 2) What if Alabama beats themselves? These are the two most intriguing questions for the Tide heading into this matchup. While I don't doubt that the reigning Heisman winner can transition back into the offense, I ponder the question of how long that can take. While Young was very good in all areas before his injury, when you need to win a shootout, even the slightest miscues hurt, and I think the Tide fall victim to that against the Rebels.'
Ole Miss Rebels (12-1. Loss to Tennessee)
Alabama's two most penalized games have been their only road games (15 penalties versus the Longhorns and 10 against the Razorbacks). In the Texas game, Alabama was as undisciplined as it has ever looked under Nick Saban as far as total penalties in one game. Trying to get Young fully back in sync against a raucous crowd and a team that is better than Arkansas, I believe Alabama loses a close one to Ole Miss. I then see Ole Miss dropping the SEC Title game to the Vols in a three-possession loss against an Ole Miss team who just upset Alabama and played a physical Egg Bowl game versus Mississippi State.
I know what you're thinking. You're saying, "Well, that's great, but who makes the playoff?' Well, have no fear we have come to the part of this article where the controversy that was eluded to earlier will be front and center.
Georgia (misses playoff)
Tennessee (makes playoff)
Alabama (makes playoff)
Ole Miss (misses playoff)
I was close to putting three SEC teams in the CFP, but I feel like that discredits the great years some of these other conferences have had. Yes, I have Ole Miss beating Alabama in the regular season. However, I believe they will have tough tests to close out the season both at LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and at home against Mississippi State. I believe they will hobble into the SEC Title game wehere Tennessee beats them by at least 17. Conversely, Alabama will have looked dominant in every game before the Ole Miss matchup and will also look dominate after. This makes voters contemplate, "Even though Ole Miss beat Alabama, it was a road game for Alabama, and they barely lost. Their entire body of work overshadows their narrow loss to Ole Miss, especially because they beat the team that eventually routed Ole Miss. This result will immediately spark outrage and incite fans to demand the playoff field be expanded sooner than 2026.
Tennessee's path to get into the CFP is a bit more simple to understand. Even though they lost to Alabama, they won the toughest conference in the nation and therefore are in. I appreciate everyone taking the time to read this article. After the AP poll releases tomorrow October 16, 2022, I will do a breakdown of the other two playoff spots and if necessary, make any revisions that today's games make necessary.
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