Celtics vs Heat Game 7 Preview

 Celtics vs Heat Game 7 Preview

    Let's face it:  The 2021-22 NBA season has been filled with more uncertainty than just about any in recent memory.  Nothing embodies that unpredictability quite like Miami having the number one seed going into their final Eastern Conference tilt of the year.  For the first time since 2012-13, Miami holds the top spot in the East, and they have looked mightily impressive throughout the postseason.  Before we get into a preview of the decisive game of these Eastern Conference Finals, it is important to understand how both teams got there, starting with the scrappy squad from South Beach:

Eastern Conference 1st Round:  Miami Heat def Atlanta Hawks 4-1

    While most people (myself included) expected Miami to win their first-round matchup, what was not expected was the sheer domination displayed in a gentleman's sweep of a veteran-filled Atlanta team.   Trae Young played absolutely awful, shooting 18% from three and 31% from the field.  Trae's 15.4 ppg average against Miami is a credit to the swarming defense of Miami, who made life difficult to say the least.  Combine that with six turnovers per game and you've got a team in Atlanta that never found any kind of rhythm.  Miami's swarming defense is evident in their earning over nine steals per game against the ATL, and even after this series win, nobody seemed to be talking about them.  Miami's ball movement also looked impeccable during this series.

Eastern Conference Semi-Finals:  Miami Heat def Philadelphia 76ers 4-2

    Years from now, a few things about this series will be remembered:  Joel Embiid missing the first two contests, and James Harden appears to be a shell of his former self.  And while Philly clawed back into the series by winning games three and four at home, game 5 is indicative of what made Miami so successful, and the reason they are within one game of Pro Basketball's biggest stage.  Every time Embiid touched the ball in this crucial game, Miami had a plan.  While he was dealing with a finger injury that limited him, credit absolutely needs to be given to Miami for harassing him every time he touched the ball and devising schemes to make him as ineffective as possible.  Even with a healthy Embiid for all seven games, I do not see any way Miami would've lost this series, also considering that they had the best home record in the East during the regular season, and when they get momentum going during a home game, you might as well call it done.

    So what about the Celtics?  This is a team that received hardly any fanfare throughout the year, yet has looked like a well-oiled machine throughout the postseason, with only a few slip-ups from what looks like championship contender form.  Here is how Boston made it to tonight's game seven:

Eastern Conference 1st Round:  Boston Celtics def Brooklyn Nets 4-0

    This was supposed to be the heavyweight showdown that was worthy of a conference finals matchup.  And up until the end of game one, it lived up to the billing.  In Game 2, Kevin Durant shot an abysmal 4-17 from the field and committed six turnovers.  While he finished with 27 points, 18 of those came from the charity stripe.  In Game 4, Brooklyn had to play from behind for most of the game, and the "big three" of Tatum, Brown, and Smart all had more than 20 points, with Tatum leading Boston with 29 points.  While the memes began to pour in about Brooklyn's inability to win a single game, much of America still did not take Boston seriously, and instead deflected that the reason they swept the Nets was dysfunction on the side of the Brooklyn team.  However, the next series against Milwaukee would be the true test.

Eastern Conference Semi-Finals:  Boston Celtics def Milwaukee Bucks 4-3

    I will admit:  I did not think the Celtics were going to win this series, especially after Milwaukee looked so good in game one.  While Giannis forcing the issue did not work in game one and he shot 9-25, Milwaukee still won by double digits.  And how Boston responded to that adversity is why I have come to really enjoy watching this year's team.  The Celtics responded greatly in game two, led by Brown and Tatum, and a huge x-factor was 35-year-old Al Horford recording 11 points and 11 assists, all the while picking up a block, to go along with four steals.  Game three was a nail-biter that could've gone either way, and game four was dominated by AL Horford (30/8).  In game five, Milwaukee took the lead in a contest that will be remembered for Jrue Holiday making three huge defensive plays to steal the critical matchup on the road.  He blocked Marcus Smart, threw it off of his leg so that Milwaukee got the ball back, and ripped the ball to silence the Garden and put Milwaukee a win away from the Eastern Conference Finals.

    Game six in Milwaukee was rocking, and Boston pulled away in the third quarter to send the series back to Boston for a decisive game seven.  Tatum had a game that forever will be included when talking about his legacy (46/9), and one can't help but feel bad for Giannis, who had 44 points, 20 rebounds, and six assists in the loss.  Pat Connaughton and Jrue Holiday were the only other two Bucks in double figures.  

    Finally, we arrived at game seven.  As has been the case so many times throughout the course of big games, an unexpected here carried his team to victory.  In Boston's case, it was Grant Williams.  The former Tennessee Volunteer had 11 points in the third quarter as Boston started to put it away.  After a 109-81 victory, the Celtics looked as confident as ever.

Game 7 Spread:  Celtics -2.5 vs Heat (O/U 195.5) via The Athletic

    This is a tough one to call.  Miami had a Michael Jordan-esque performance from Jimmy Buckets in game six, as he channeled his inner LeBron to drop 47 points and keep the series alive.  However, had Jaylen Brown not missed two crucial free throws with the game tied and P.J. Tucker not made a beautiful steal on a spinning Tatum, we may not be preparing for an Eastern Conference winner-take-all game tonight.  We are though, and Miami is badly bruised coming into game seven.  

Looking for a Herro (or anyone for that matter)

    While it is expected that we will see P.J. Tucker and Kyle Lowry in game seven playing through injuries, Tyler Herro's status is still unknown.  It is imperative that Miami have Herro for this game, as he provides more floor spacing.  While he has been less than impressive throughout the postseason, he was the sixth man of the year for a reason, and his confidence in shooting the ball should give more breathing room to guys like Butler and Oladipo.

Jaylen Brown needs to step up

    Jaylen Brown has had an impressive series, but he need to be reliable for Miami tonight when the game comes down the stretch.  In game six, while he dropped 20 points, he only attempted one shot in the fourth quarter.  His free throw struggles should also be a concern for Boston, as having your second (and sometimes first) option shooting 69% for the postseason can hurt you down the stretch, especially because it is likely that Miami will do its best to keep the ball out of Tatum's hands and force Brown (who is fully capable) to make a play.  Brown is shooting 42% from three in this series, but he needs to find his rhythm early, otherwise, Boston will be desperately searching for answers as they go into hostile territory.

Prediction:  Celtics 99, Heat 97

    While I have my doubts about the Celtics, I like their chemistry too much to go against them in a game like this, even if that game is on the road.  I do not see Butler doing what he did Friday night, and trying to incorporate Herro back into the lineup may cause the tiny bit of dysfunction the Celtics need to find an opening and pull ahead.  Also, Boston has many guys who can be x-factors and make big shots.  We saw Derrick White in game six make big shots, and as mentioned previously Grant Williams played big when they beat Milwaukee in seven.  Combine that with the veteran leadership of Horford & Smart and picking Boston to take on Golden State in the finals seems like a sure bet, although taking Boston -2.5 may cause you to rip your hair out.